BUD FOX RESEARCH · MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
Mag7 Desk Note #235
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2026
OPEN PREVIEWDESK NOTE 235 · 04 NOV 2026 · 06:04 ET
Published 6:04 AM ET · Market data through 6:04 AM ET
Leadership
TSLA strongest trend · MSFT cleanest relative
Positioning
1/7 ABOVE EMA20 · 11% AVG CONV
Risk
6/7 BELOW EMA20 · GOOGL WEAKEST RELATIVE
Watch
NVDA -4.2% vs EMA20
Deltas
Since last note
- NEW AAPL: iPad Mini review: A pricey delight
Desk Synthesis
Executive Takeaway
The Magnificent Seven complex remains technically fractured, with six of the seven names trading below their 20-day moving averages. Despite a pre-market drop in the VIX, elevated 10-year Treasury yields near 4.9% continue to pressure long-duration tech valuations. However, physical datacenter infrastructure and semiconductor supply chains are showing distinct resilience, contrasting sharply with the broader software and consumer hardware tape.
Positioning
- NVDA & AI Hardware: Despite trading 4.2% below its EMA20, NVDA is outperforming peers AMD and AVGO by 2.3pp. This relative strength is supported by a bid in datacenter power (VRT +5.23%) and foundry (TSM +1.55%) ahead of Nvidia's earnings print in 13 days.
- GOOGL Extreme Oversold: Alphabet is severely lagging its ad and cloud peers by 8.5pp. The stock is deeply oversold with an RSI of 22.2 and is trading 11.8% below its EMA20.
- TSLA Divergence: Tesla is the sole Mag7 component holding above its short-term trend (+3.2% vs EMA20), though midterm election headlines are creating immediate pre-market headwinds.
Key Risks
- Yield Anchor: The 10-year Treasury sitting at 4.91% continues to act as a heavy anchor on mega-cap tech multiples, limiting the upside for names already struggling with momentum.
- AMZN Options Skew: Amazon is seeing extreme put-heavy options flow with a front-expiry P/C volume ratio of 8.04, signaling aggressive downside hedging.
Watch
NVDA · Earnings countdown (13 days, EPS est $2.53) · Watch for continued strength in physical datacenter proxies like VRT and EQIX to validate AI CapEx durability despite the weak Mag7 technical tape.
What Changed
First issue in this series.
Universe
Magnificent Seven · 7 names
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:04 ET
Price = daily close · vs SPY = 24h relative · equity as of Nov 4, 6:04 AM ET · options as of Nov 4, 6:03 AM ET
| Symbol | Price | Trend | RSI | RVOL | RV20 | IV30 | IV−RV | Skew | vs SPY | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 331.90 | -2.6% | 41.7 | 1.48x | 17.6 | 17.2 | -0.4 | — | -2.20% | 7% |
| MSFT | 520.99 | -0.6% | 49.4 | 0.89x | 24.1 | 39.1 | +15.0 | — | +2.44% | 18% |
| GOOGL | 280.03 | -11.8% | 22.2 | 1.02x | 50.8 | 34.5 | -16.3 | — | +0.07% | 10% |
| AMZN | 250.69 | -0.3% | 48.7 | 0.88x | 37.3 | 49.2 | +11.9 | — | +1.76% | 0% |
| NVDA | 206.69 | -4.2% | 39.2 | 0.90x | 32.6 | 42.4 | +9.8 | — | +1.99% | 31% |
| META | 621.03 | -5.8% | 37.0 | 0.58x | 38.5 | 36.0 | -2.5 | — | +2.06% | 9% |
| TSLA | 398.50 | +3.2% | 59.0 | 0.72x | 36.5 | 50.2 | +13.7 | — | -1.62% | 0% |
Community
TradingView strategies · Mag7
Strategy bench not available this generation.
Macro
US macro + FX · 13 series
SOURCE FRED · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:00 ET
| Series | Label | Latest | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFF | Fed funds effective | 3.88% | +0.00 | 2026-11-02 LAGGED |
| DGS2 | 2Y Treasury | 4.59% | +0.03 | 2026-11-02 LAGGED |
| DGS10 | 10Y Treasury | 4.91% | -0.03 | 2026-11-02 LAGGED |
| T10Y2Y | 10Y–2Y spread | 0.34% | +0.02 | 2026-11-03 |
| T10YIE | 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.30% | +0.01 | 2026-11-03 |
| BAMLH0A0HYM2 | HY OAS | 3.43% | -0.01 | 2026-11-02 LAGGED |
| UNRATE | Unemployment rate | 4.20% | +0.10 | 2026-09-01 LAGGED |
| CPIAUCSL | CPI (all urban, SA) | 336.3 | +4.02% YoY | 2026-09-01 LAGGED |
| DTWEXBGS | Broad USD index | 121.7 | -0.07 | 2026-10-30 LAGGED |
| DEXUSEU | EURUSD | 1.1163 | -0.0002 | 2026-10-30 LAGGED |
| DEXJPUS | USDJPY | 157.47 | -0.36 | 2026-10-30 LAGGED |
| DEXCHUS | USDCNY (CNH proxy) | 6.6538 | -0.0066 | 2026-10-30 LAGGED |
| VIXCLS | VIX | 21.15 | +1.73 | 2026-11-02 LAGGED |
Metals
Precious & auto metals · 5
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · Futures · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:00 ET
Pt / Pd / Ag / Au + Cu
| ID | Metal | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Auto relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | Platinum | $1,466.8 | +2.40% | -5.24% | -13.35% | Catalytic converters (ICE); cost input for auto OEMs / suppliers |
| PA | Palladium | $994.00 | +6.88% | -1.53% | -14.58% | Gasoline catalytic converters; sharp moves hit auto input costs |
| SI | Silver | $52.08 | +5.02% | -2.59% | -14.87% | Electronics / EV contacts; industrial demand proxy |
| GC | Gold | $4,053 | +2.86% | +0.03% | -3.20% | Macro risk / real-rate proxy; can affect auto valuation multiples |
| HG | Copper | $6.4575 | +1.24% | -2.77% | -2.08% | EV wiring / motors; not precious but core auto cost input |
Power
Power & energy · 9
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:00 ET
Oil / gas / utilities / uranium for AI & industrial power costs
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | WTI crude | $95.22 | -0.91% | -7.36% | +6.46% | Oil complex; logistics & broader industrial cost pressure |
| BZ | Brent crude | $102.15 | -1.40% | -11.42% | +1.56% | Global oil benchmark; energy inflation proxy |
| NG | Natural gas | $2.891 | -0.14% | +2.63% | -7.16% | US power-gen feedstock; data-center / utility cost sensitivity |
| XLU | Utilities ETF | 43.42 | -0.57% | +1.33% | +8.63% | Grid / power-utility equity basket; AI power demand narrative |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 33.05 | +0.36% | -7.84% | -17.77% | Nuclear fuel chain; long-duration AI power buildout proxy |
| XLE | Energy Select ETF | 66.68 | -0.85% | -2.24% | +5.09% | Integrated energy equity beta |
| EQIX | Equinix | $1,014.4 | +2.08% | +1.50% | -0.88% | Datacenter REIT — colo capacity / interconnection demand proxy |
| DLR | Digital Realty | $180.25 | +2.44% | +0.69% | +0.21% | Hyperscale datacenter real-estate / power shell deployment |
| VRT | Vertiv | $235.97 | +5.23% | +13.14% | -6.96% | Datacenter power & thermal infrastructure orders |
Semis
Semiconductor supply chain · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:00 ET
Foundry + equipment bottleneck tape
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | Semi ETF (SMH) | 518.52 | +2.01% | -7.07% | -18.20% | Broad semiconductor supply-chain beta |
| TSM | TSMC | $404.80 | +1.55% | -7.34% | -16.67% | Leading-edge foundry capacity for NVDA / Apple / AMD |
| ASML | ASML | $1,552.1 | +1.70% | -5.10% | -16.44% | EUV lithography bottleneck for advanced nodes |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | $381.92 | +1.97% | -3.54% | -29.57% | Wafer fab equipment — deposition / etch / CMP |
| LRCX | Lam Research | $230.72 | +1.39% | -4.21% | -33.28% | Etch / deposition equipment for logic & memory |
| KLAC | KLA | $156.20 | +2.02% | +1.65% | -24.49% | Process control / inspection — yield bottleneck |
Gases
Specialty gases · 3
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:00 ET
Industrial-gas proxies for fab specialty gases
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | Linde | $511.55 | -1.57% | +0.57% | +6.05% | Largest industrial gas franchise; fab specialty-gas exposure |
| APD | Air Products | $312.97 | -0.97% | +1.91% | +11.99% | Hydrogen / electronic gases for semiconductors & refining |
| AIQUY | Air Liquide ADR | $40.74 | +0.05% | +4.73% | +5.93% | Electronics / specialty gases for chip manufacturing |
News
Mag7 headlines · 7
SOURCE News wire · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:00 ET
| Symbol | Name | Headlines |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | |
| AMZN | Amazon | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | |
| META | Meta | |
| TSLA | Tesla |
News
Front-page semantics
No front-page news extraction in this generation.
Influencers
Donald J. Trump
No Mag7 Truth Social posts in this generation.
Options
Mag7 options · 7
SOURCE Options · Massive · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:03 ET
Front expiry ATM IV · put/call
| Symbol | Spot | Expiry | ATM IV | P/C vol | P/C OI | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 338.32 | 2026-12-04 | 17.2% | 0.15 | — | — |
| MSFT | 507.12 | 2026-12-04 | 39.1% | 1.36 | — | — |
| GOOGL | 278.99 | 2026-12-04 | 34.5% | 0.00 | — | — |
| AMZN | 245.63 | 2026-12-04 | 49.2% | 8.04 | — | — |
| NVDA | 204.64 | 2026-12-04 | 42.4% | 1.08 | — | — |
| META | 614.99 | 2026-12-04 | 36.0% | 0.45 | — | — |
| TSLA | 399.81 | 2026-12-04 | 50.2% | 0.00 | — | — |
Alt data
Congress trades · Mag7 · 20
SOURCE Capitol Trades · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:01 ET
STOCK Act disclosures
| Symbol | Side | Range | Member | Party / chamber | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | sell | 500K–1M | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-12-12 |
| AAPL | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-10-14 |
| GOOGL | buy | 100K–250K | Dave McCormick | Republican · Senate | 2026-10-06 |
| GOOGL | buy | 250K–500K | Dave McCormick | Republican · Senate | 2026-10-13 |
| AMZN | sell | 15K–50K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-10-26 |
| NVDA | buy | 1K–15K | Cleo Fields | Democrat · House | 2026-09-30 |
| AMZN | sell | 100K–250K | Ann Wagner | Republican · House | 2026-10-19 |
| AAPL | sell | 100K–250K | Ann Wagner | Republican · House | 2026-10-19 |
| MSFT | sell | 1K–15K | Sheldon Whitehouse | Democrat · Senate | 2026-10-14 |
| AAPL | sell | 15K–50K | Sheldon Whitehouse | Democrat · Senate | 2026-10-14 |
| AMZN | buy | 1K–15K | Ro Khanna | Democrat · House | 2026-09-03 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | Ro Khanna | Democrat · House | 2026-09-03 |
| GOOGL | sell | 100K–250K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-10-01 |
| AMZN | sell | 100K–250K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-10-01 |
| AAPL | sell | 250K–500K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-10-01 |
| MSFT | sell | 1K–15K | Michael Rulli | Republican · House | 2026-09-27 |
| MSFT | buy | 15K–50K | Diana Harshbarger | Republican · House | 2026-09-30 |
| AAPL | buy | 100K–250K | Dave McCormick | Republican · Senate | 2026-10-05 |
| MSFT | buy | 250K–500K | Dave McCormick | Republican · Senate | 2026-10-06 |
| GOOGL | sell | 250K–500K | Dave McCormick | Republican · Senate | 2026-10-07 |
Alt data
Insider trades · Mag7 · 14
SOURCE SEC EDGAR · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:02 ET
Open-market purchases / sales
| Symbol | Side | Shares | Price | Filer | Title | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | Sale | 82 | 284.00 | ARNOLD FRANCES | Director | 2026-10-29 |
| AAPL | Sale | 2,399 | 343.36 | Newstead Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | 2026-10-27 |
| META | Sale | 390 | 640.00 | Alford Peggy | — | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 946 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 82 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 57 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 82 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 408 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| AAPL | Sale | 2,399 | 339.62 | Newstead Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | 2026-10-20 |
| MSFT | Sale | 3,387 | 544.80 | Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | 2026-10-13 |
| MSFT | Sale | 2,927 | 545.77 | Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | 2026-10-13 |
| MSFT | Sale | 991 | 546.51 | Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | 2026-10-13 |
| AMZN | Sale | 1,000 | 251.50 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | 2026-10-01 |
| TSLA | Sale | 2,606 | 360.13 | Taneja Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-09-08 |
Alt data
Short interest · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Short interest · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:02 ET
Days to cover = SI ÷ ADV
| Symbol | Short interest | ADV | Days to cover | Δ SI | Settlement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 131.59M | 35.50M | 3.71 | +9.0% | 2026-10-15 |
| MSFT | 65.67M | 20.64M | 3.18 | +7.4% | 2026-10-15 |
| GOOGL | 78.44M | 22.96M | 3.42 | -2.4% | 2026-10-15 |
| AMZN | 93.66M | 33.29M | 2.81 | +8.1% | 2026-10-15 |
| NVDA | 301.62M | 103.63M | 2.91 | -3.1% | 2026-10-15 |
| META | 28.42M | 15.79M | 1.80 | -15.4% | 2026-10-15 |
| TSLA | 69.35M | 31.29M | 2.22 | -2.2% | 2026-10-15 |
Calendar
Earnings · Mag7 · 1
SOURCE Finnhub · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:01 ET
Window 2026-10-21 → 2027-01-03 · EPS actual / estimate
| Symbol | Date | Timing | Session | Period | EPS A/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 2026-11-17 | In 13d | AMC | Q3 2027 | — / 2.53 |
| AAPL | No print in window | ||||
| AMZN | No print in window | ||||
| GOOGL | No print in window | ||||
| META | No print in window | ||||
| MSFT | No print in window | ||||
| TSLA | No print in window | ||||
Comps
Competitive peers · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Competitive peers · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:02 ET
| Primary | Price | Trend | Peer 1 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Peer 2 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 331.90 | -2.6% | MSFT | 520.99 | -0.6% | 0.89x | GOOGL | 280.03 | -11.8% | 1.02x | Platform + consumer software peers |
| MSFT | 520.99 | -0.6% | GOOGL | 280.03 | -11.8% | 1.02x | AMZN | 250.69 | -0.3% | 0.88x | Cloud / enterprise software peers |
| GOOGL | 280.03 | -11.8% | META | 621.03 | -5.8% | 0.58x | MSFT | 520.99 | -0.6% | 0.89x | Ad platforms + cloud peers |
| AMZN | 250.69 | -0.3% | WMT | 124.86 | +5.4% | 1.03x | COST | 1,019.26 | +3.1% | 0.87x | Commerce / retail scale peers |
| NVDA | 206.69 | -4.2% | AMD | 483.90 | -10.8% | 1.59x | AVGO | 332.13 | -2.2% | 0.77x | AI / semiconductor peers |
| META | 621.03 | -5.8% | GOOGL | 280.03 | -11.8% | 1.02x | SNAP | 5.59 | -5.2% | 0.69x | Social / digital ads peers |
| TSLA | 398.50 | +3.2% | GM | 88.34 | +6.5% | 0.77x | F | 12.31 | +0.8% | 0.97x | Auto / EV peers |
Patents
USPTO · Mag7 · 21 grants
SOURCE USPTO · AS OF 04 NOV 2026 06:01 ET
| Symbol | Granted | Age | Patent | Title | Assignee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | US12709014B2 | Spatial mapping and planning with language models using knowledge graphs | Nvidia Corporation |
| NVDA | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | US12710961B2 | Application programming interface to wait on matrix multiply-accumulate | Nvidia Corporation |
| META | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142324S1 | Wearable device | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142471S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with animated graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142463S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142481S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142462S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142279S1 | Display device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-11 | 2mo ago | USD1140954S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-08-11 | 2mo ago | US12705061B2 | Application programming interface to indicate accelerator error handlers | Nvidia Corporation |
| AAPL | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USD1139462S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USD1139423S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USD1139252S1 | Wireless connectivity device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USD1139331S1 | Content streaming device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USD1139463S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USD1139319S1 | Graphics card | Nvidia Corporation |
| MSFT | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | US12701249B2 | Rules for intra-picture prediction modes when wavefront parallel processing is … | Microsoft Technology Licensing, Llc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USJPCAUSD1139463S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc. |
| MSFT | 2026-07-28 | 3mo ago | US12694027B2 | Generative graph-enhanced information retrieval | Microsoft Technology Licensing, Llc |
| GOOGL | 2026-07-28 | 3mo ago | USD1137184S1 | Speaker device with lights | Google LLC |
| NVDA | 2026-07-28 | 3mo ago | US12694551B2 | Foundation model for zero-shot stereo matching | Nvidia Corporation |
Forward look
Stock Prediction for Tomorrow
Summary
The session setup is cautious, with elevated Treasury yields acting as a persistent headwind for tech valuations. Market breadth is mixed, but resilience is emerging in AI hardware and physical datacenter infrastructure, contrasting with weakness in broader software and consumer segments.
Mag7 Calls
- AAPL · Down · medium — Below EMA20, RSI 41.7, and facing increasing short interest, despite outperforming peers.
- MSFT · Flat · medium — Below EMA20, neutral RSI, but strong relative performance vs cloud peers and positive options volume suggest consolidation.
- GOOGL · Up · high — Deeply oversold (RSI 22.2, -11.8% vs EMA20) and lagging peers, presenting a contrarian bounce opportunity.
- AMZN · Flat · medium — Below EMA20, neutral RSI, but high P/C volume ratio (8.04) indicates significant downside hedging ahead of potential catalysts.
- META · Down · medium — Below EMA20, RSI 37.0, and facing news regarding business terms and web scraping, despite outperforming ad peers.
- NVDA · Up · high — Outperforming semiconductor peers and supported by strength in datacenter infrastructure proxies ahead of earnings.
- TSLA · Down · medium — The sole name above EMA20, but facing immediate pre-market headwinds from midterm election news impacting SpaceX/Tesla shares.
Catalysts to Watch
- NVDA Earnings: Upcoming print (13 days) is a key driver for the AI hardware narrative and broader market sentiment.
- Treasury Yields: Continued upward pressure on 10Y yields near 4.91% will cap upside for growth stocks.
- Semiconductor Supply Chain: Strength in TSM (+1.55%) and equipment makers (SMH +2.01%) supports the AI hardware thesis.
Risks
- Yield Shock: Any further upward movement in long-term yields could trigger a broad de-rating of tech multiples.
- Options Skew: High put volume in AMZN (P/C 8.04) signals potential for significant downside if sentiment shifts.
Hypothetical next-session read from tape + desk synthesis. Not investment advice.